Sem. Risks and Uncertainties in Rural Development

This seminar examines the economics of risk and uncertainty and their central role in shaping rural development outcomes. Building on the distinction introduced by Frank Knight and further developed in modern microeconomic theory, particularly by Pindyck and Rubinfeld, the course explores how economic agents make decisions under conditions where outcomes are uncertain and information is incomplete. While risk refers to situations in which probabilities can be assigned to future events, uncertainty arises when such probabilities are unknown or cannot be reliably estimated. This distinction is particularly relevant in rural economies, where farmers, households, firms and governments must make production, investment and consumption decisions in the presence of climate variability, market volatility, policy changes, technological uncertainty, pests, diseases and geopolitical shocks. The seminar analyzes expected utility theory, risk preferences, risk aversion, intertemporal decision-making, insurance and market failures, as well as the implications of uncertainty for investment, innovation, poverty traps and structural transformation. Particular attention is given to why risk and uncertainty are often amplified in rural areas due to incomplete markets, information asymmetries, liquidity constraints and limited access to risk-management instruments. The course also examines how policies, institutions, financial markets, early warning systems and technological innovations can reduce vulnerability, strengthen resilience and promote sustainable rural development in an increasingly uncertain world.

50 créditos académicos aprobados + Microeconomía II + Econometría I

De lunes a viernes: 03:30 p. m. – 06:30 p. m.

Sábado: 03:30 p. m. – 07:30 p. m.